2010 NFL Draft – 1st Round

The first round of the draft is over. I’m going to run through it quickly pick by pick to share my opinion. Of course this is my own humble opinion but this is one of those things that I have so much to share that I have to share it to someone. So anyone who wants to listen can choose to. Also, my other disclaimer is this —

Ignore draft grades. They are wrong. Period. A draft CAN NOT be graded within 5 years. That’s right, 5 years. 1 year doesn’t mean jack. 2 years isn’t enough. 3-5 years really tells the story of a draft. So we can speculate right now, but there’s no real evaluation method for right now. Especially when we’re still in the middle of the draft because its the later rounds that really are the telling tale of the draft. So these are basically just my initial thoughts on this year’s draft, so take it only for what it’s worth.

Pick # Team — Who Was Picked — My thoughts.

1. Rams – Sam Bradford QB Oklahoma — This was the right pick. There really was nothing else to do here. Bradford is the best QB in the draft and the Rams need a cornerstone to build around.

2. Lions — Ndamakong Suh DT Nebraska — Probably the best player in the draft. If he wasn’t hyped so much, this would be the safest pick as well. The hype shouldn’t affect how we judge his productivity simply because he’s playing for the Lions. Even if he doesn’t have a ton of tackles, he’s going to stop up the middle and create havoc for other teams, and other opportunities for the rest of the defensive line. Great pick.

3. Buccaneers — Gerald McCoy DT Oklahoma — This works well for the Bucs. While Suh is probably the better player, McCoy actually fits a cover 2, or Tampa 2 if you will, better. As long as the Bucs got 1 of the 2 DT’s they were going to be happy.

4. Redskins — Trent Williams OT Oklahoma — I LOVE this pick. Williams is athletic and that’s perfect for Shannahan who loves to create chaos and shift the line. Plus Donovan is a QB who likes to move around and so he needs a LT who can keep up. Okung was the predicted projection but the athleticism is what Shannahan loves and he’s been great at projecting tackles so it’s hard to argue with him about this one.

5. Chiefs — Eric Berry S Tennessee — The obvious pick I think. You can’t miss with this guy. The Chiefs need safety help and he was the best player available. Good pick. Going to be a player of importance for years to come.

6. Seahawks — Russell Okung OT Oklahoma State — Can’t miss here. Okung is widely considered the best tackle in the draft. Seattle needs to protect whomever they have at QB. Safe and really a surprise to get the guy that was probably rated the highest on their board at the position. Good start.

7. Browns — Joe Haden CB Florida — I’m not hugely fond of this pick. It’s okay I guess, but not great. Joe Haden is an above average corner, but I think the Browns have so many needs that I was looking for a true impact player here and I just don’t think Haden is that guy. He’s solid I guess but I would have loved to see Dez Bryant, Clausen, or even Rolando McClain here.

8. Raiders — Rolando McClain ILB Alabama — The first pick that makes sense for the Raiders. Well, the first pick in years that can be justified at least. I like the pick though. I am always a defense first kind of guy. Of course the Raiders need a ton of offense but if they can steal Clausen or McCoy in the 2nd round and find a WR of worth, they’ll be better.

9. Bills – CJ Spiller RB Clemson — Could very well be the best possible player in the draft. With that said, hate the pick. Fred Jackson was great before Marshawn Lynch came back from his suspension. I don’t understand why they changed anything when Lynch came back. Jackson is a suitable back. So make him better by finding a guard, tackle, or Maurkice Pouncey. Not what I would have expected here, but I can’t say this is going to be bad. Note: Spiller looked pissed he was going to Buffalo. If he doesn’t have a desire to play there, watch out.

10. Jaguars – Tyson Alualu DT California — This is supposedly a stretch here, but I’m not going to argue with the Jags choice of defensive players. They obviously believe that they wouldn’t get another shot at this guy before their next pick. It’s only a reach if he doesn’t work out.

11. 49ers – Anthony Davis OT Rutgers — The first trade of the draft here. I didn’t like it at the time but when the 49ers drafted another offensive linemen I liked the combination of the picks to give the run game a boost and the QB security. Frank Gore should get 25 carries a game and the Niners should win consistently. At the end of the year, the 49ers switched to more of a spread offense and it equaled their downfall. Realize what works and use these picks to get better.

12. Chargers – Ryan Matthews RB Fresno State — No one else saw this coming. Why? The Chargers were hurting for a downhill back and he fits the Chargers perfectly. I love the pick and AJ Smith makes another great pick.

13. Eagles – Brandon Graham OLB Michigan — I’m not sure the Eagles needed to move up to get the guy they wanted here. Apparently they fell in love with Graham. If he pans out, with Ernie Sims, they could have the best OLB corp in the league.

14. Seahwaks – Earl Thomas S Texas — This guy might be my favorite player in the draft. Speed, hitter, instincts, and ball skills. Everything you’d want in a safety. I think he’s the best player, side by side with Suh and Gerald McCoy. Time will only tell but if I’m right the Seahawks will have the best draft out of everyone.

15. Giants – Jason Pierre-Paul DE South Florida — Um, I’m not sure here. I’ve always been a fan of production over ceiling or hype. Pierre-Paul is an interesting case. He only started one year but wowed scouts with that year and his performance at the combine. He and Bruce Campbell may set the rule and precedent on future decisions this year. I think Pierre-Paul is talented, but it’s his motor and desire that will determine if the Giants made the right pick or not.

16. – Titans – Derrick Morgan DE Georgia Tech — Sometimes the picks work out perfect and this is one of those times. The Titans have a great eye for defensive talent and Morgan will fill the hole left by Vanden Bosch perfectly. This is a great example of why teams are willing to let veterans go and reload through the draft. It’s a risk, but a calculated one if you draft well. Smaller salaries and the same amount of production from a younger guy.

17. 49ers – Mike Iupati OG Idaho — This is an okay pick, but coupled with Anthony Davis, the 49ers don’t have to worry about their line for a while.

18. Steelers – Maurkice Pouncey C Florida — Not a sexy pick, but one that adds some versatility to the line. Pouncey can switch fluidly to guard if needed. The Steelers have stuck to their roots and made sure the trenches are solidified before adding fire power.

19. Falcons – Sean Weatherspoon OLB Missouri — Thomas Dimitroff is one of my favorite GM’s in the league. I expected McCourty or Kyle Wilson here but it seems as if the Falcons scouting staff believes in the young CB’s it’s drafted lately. We’ll see but I knew there would be a commitment to shore up the defense before the offense. I could see a lineman and maybe a receiver in future rounds for the Falcons, but most of the picks will all be on the defensive side of the ball – again.

20. Texans – Kareem Jackson CB Alabama — Some GM’s prefer to emphasize conferences because of the competition. So some believe that an average player in a good conference is better than a good player in a worse conference. This seems to be the case with Jackson. He’s an above average player in the SEC and that seems to mean more than the projected talent than Kyle Wilson from Boise State. I’ll be interested to see how this one plays out.

21. Bengals – Jermaine Gresham TE Oklahoma — This is the pick the Bengals were supposed to make the last couple of years. Gresham is supposed to be more of an all around talent than Pettigrew from last year. But the Bengals didn’t feel they needed a TE as long as they had Reggie Kelly. Now that he’s gone, the Bengals had to go TE and if they waited until their 2nd pick, they’d have no one that woul dsuffice. Sometimes needs andopportunity work out in a timely fashion.

22. Broncos – Demaryius Thomas WR Georgia Tech — I like this guy and I can see why the Broncos wanted him. In a rushing offense, he was still a monster. So he’ll be fine even with the likes of Orton, Quinn, or … wait, the Broncos drafted who else in the first round?!

23. Packers – Bryan Bulaga OT Iowa — The Packers were ecstatic to get Bulaga at 23. He was probably high on their board but they probably figured he’d be long gone by the time the pick came around. If Chad Clifton can stay healthy, Aaron Rodgers is gonna have plenty of time to throw the ball. I’m positive the Packers were targeting someone else but when Bulaga fell they couldn’t pass on him.

24. Cowboys – Dez Bryant WR Oklahoma State — This is the sexy pick. I’m not sure I agree with it but I knew it was coming when he was still available. Jerry Jones likes the flash. I probably would have went corner or safety here because I have to face McNabb, Eli, and well…not really Kolb…but more of the receivers that he can throw to. I think it’s interesting the Broncos went with Thomas before Bryant, and that’s probably why the Cowboys moved up.

25. Broncos – Tim Tebow QB Florida — The most disputed pick of the draft. Listen, I’m not going to argue with picking Tebow. I think he has his uses. I think he’s a winner. I don’t agree with moving up to get him. And I absolutely don’t agree with taking him before Clausen. Tebow is worth taking a flier on, but not worth giving up draft picks for. I’ll discuss the QB quandry in depth in my next post.

26. Cardinals – Dan Williams DT Tennesee — Williams is underrated as a DT. He played against the best lines in the country while in the SEC and still managed to play well. I haven’t been able to watch a ton of film, but I question if Williams is athletic enough to be the nose in a 3-4. He’s an anchor and strong, and should fit okay in Arizona.

27. Patriots – Devin McCourty CB Rutgers — The Pats probably took the best available on their board. If they were going for need it would have been a LB. Then again, they very well could assume that a LB they wanted would still be on the board in their next pick. At this point, I have no credibility to doubt the Pats draft strategy.

28. Dolphins – Jared Odrick DT Penn State — I like Odrick a ton. I like defense before offense. But at this point, I think the Dolphins need to focus on the offense — receivers and tight end specifically.

29. Jets – Kyle Wilson CB Boise State — Terrific value here. Maybe it’s a best available for the Jets, otherwise I don’t understand it. They already have good corners. I could even understand a young DE or LB to learn from Jason Taylor for a year. I could also see a safety here.

30. Lions – Jahvid Best RB California — The Lions moved up to get this guy. I think he’s got the explosiveness to be exciting, and he and Kevin Smith should play nice together should Smith be okay from injury. I like the addition of a playmaker, that’s for sure. Too bad he has no offensive line to make any holes for him.

31. Colts – Jerry Hughes OLB Kansas State — Speed is emphasized in the Tampa 2 and I think that’s what the Colts were looking for here. Bill Polian has an eye for guys who are a great fit to his system so I won’t doubt him. I like Hughes and I think he works for the Colts. Hard to disagree with this one.

32. Saints – Patrick Robinson CB Florida State — Past actions are the best predictors of future behavior. The Saints tried to patch and paste with corners because they felt they were weak at corner last season. We all should have seen they were going corner here.

2010
04/23
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Thoughts on Santonio Holmes trade

Darius Butler, the New England Patriots cornerback probably spoke for everyone with his Twitter update today: “Wowwww a 5th round pick! I know this supposef to be a deep draft but damn Pitt.”

I think that’s supposed to be “supposed to be.” But either way, he sums up what everyone else is thinking. How could the Super Bowl MVP from two years ago, a guy who seems to be a budding star, get traded for a measly 5th round pick?

I know I’m a little crazy but I’ll take you through my thought process when I heard this, and hopefully it will give you a different perspective that the masses.

1st thought: Only a 5th rounder? Wow. But why not more? I must be missing something.

2nd thought: It’s the Rooney’s. They live with a no bullshit attitude and expect their players to follow suit. Holmes screwed up by getting caught with pot in his car. He also told the media before the Super Bowl that he used to sell drugs as a kid. Smooth moves Ex-Lax. And then there was the recent incident involving a glass in a night-club. The Rooney’s obviously dealt him to save their image.

3rd thought: I still feel like I’m missing something. 5th rounder still seems awfully low. I know the Steelers’ staff are much much smarter than I am. So what makes a 5th round draft pick more valuable than Santonio Holmes? Well, Holmes is suspended for 4 games, so that’s one thing. What if they believe this is a character issue and not a couple isolated mistakes? Then Santonio is going to end up like Pacman — worthless.

4th thought: The Rooney’s and the Steelers have done it the right way for centuries. I know they were pissed, but the Rooney’s wouldn’t make a rookie mistake and react instead of responding. So that means they probably know something that everyone else doesn’t. Holmes could be a thug in real life and they were able to pass on a headache before it became a migraine.

Final Thought: Or maybe it’s a wake up call to Big Ben. “We’re not afraid to punish anyone within this organization, even our stars. If you make us look bad, we will get rid of you. Period.” I have a feeling the Steelers feel like being able to send a message like that to their franchise quarterback, plus a 5th round pick, is well worth a guy like Santonio Holmes. Big Ben seems to have an awfully thick skull. Let’s see if he gets the message.

2010
04/13
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Steelers’ Brass Not Making Noise

So today was a good day for Ben Roethlisberger, right? Well, not really.

The statement that was released by the Milledgeville, GA authorities detailed the incident between Big Ben and a 20 year old female. The good for Ben is that it’s obvious that the woman has no shot at a real case here. The bad news is that according to all accounts Roethlisberger followed the woman into the bathroom and locked the door behind him. To the police, what happened is a big deal. But to Commissioner Goodell, Ben has already conducted himself in a manner not in line with the personal conduct policy of the NFL. The statement won’t be exact, but it will be pretty close.

You see, most of the time, teams punish players only if they are found to be guilty of the crime they allegedly committed. If a player is found innocent, then the team and most likely the Commish as well, will forgive but not forget. However, this situation is different because the details have been so public that everyone knows Roethlisberger went into the bathroom after the woman. Whether she wanted him in there or not is not of any concern to the long arm of Roger Goodell. Ben should have never put himself in a precarious position like that in the first place. Especially considering he was being investigated for rape and/or sexual assault less than a year ago!

But that’s not the real story here.  The real story is what isn’t being said, and even more importantly, who isn’t saying it.

The Rooney’s (the owners of the Pittsburgh Steelers) are probably the most respected owners in all of the NFL. They have always led their team with grace and passion and have a nearly perfect track record with their involvement with the team. It is said that the Rooney’s personalities and nature set the tone for the entire organization to follow. While the Rooney’s may be fun to work for, don’t mistake that for a lack of assertiveness.

It’s kind of like the guy in your office who is a little bit of a goof, but when you need help with something he shocks you with an answer that makes you realize he’s actually really intelligent. I guess what I’m trying to say is, the Rooney’s are more of the “talk softly and carry a big stick” type of owner.

I think the move of Santonio Holmes says a lot about the situation Ben Roethlisberger is in. The Rooney’s believe the Steeler name and organization is above any one player — or coach for that matter — and that is the way it should be. I have a feeling that the Rooney’s take it very personally when a player reflects badly upon their team, and really, what they consider to be their family. If you step out of line, it will not be accepted. It will be dealt with in one form or another. And if this proves to be a character flaw and not an isolated mistake, you will no longer be a Pittsburgh Steeler.

Right now he’s facing a 1-2 game suspension. I’m guessing it’s a 2 game suspension just because Goodell likes to make an impression. In truth, Roethlisberger is lucky to even still have a job. If he played a position other than QB, or if the Steelers had a suitable replacement, the Rooney’s would have shipped Big Ben off to become someone else’s problem.

I foresee an interesting draft for the Steelers. I think a QB in the 4th or 5th round would stir up some dust. Tony Pike or Jevan Sneed might fit nicely for them. I could even see a longshot like John Skelton out of Fordham or Johnathon Crompton out of Tennessee finding their names on the Steelers card late in the draft. And when that happens, be ready for the media to make it into the, “Are the Steelers preparing for like without Big Ben?” story.

2010
04/13
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Why would the Eagles trade McNabb to the Redskins?

This one is easy, actually.

But first, I have to give credit to the Philadelphia Eagles for the class they’ve shown in this deal. There are sources that have said that both the Raiders and the Bills had better offers on the table that the deal that they accepted from the Redskins. But Andy Reid and the Eagles personnel took the lesser offer because McNabb had expressed his disinterest in going to Oakland or Buffalo. Philadelphia had enough respect and class to send McNabb to a place where he wasn’t completely against going. And then they posted a gigantic sign outside Lincoln Financial Field that reads, “Thanks for all the memories Donovan.” Truly first class.

And this is in complete contrast to the stories that flew around Philly when the Eagles release Brian Dawkins last offseason.

But anyways, on to the real reason why you’re here: Why on Earth would the Eagles trade their franchise player to a division rival?

The answer is confidence and timing. The Eagles absolutely have to have the utmost confidence in Kevin Kolb to be able to lead their team. If not, they never would have even considered dealing Donovan. And it seems that the Eagles have begun to adopt the Chargers belief that it’s better to deal a player a year early get true compensation out of him than to deal him a year late. Philly must believe that Donovan is about to hit the downslope of his career and wished to sell high on him. And it’s hard to question them.

McNabb only completed about 60% of his passes, which is the 2nd lowest of any starter in the league. Only Matt Cassell was worse. Also, now would be a good time to note that in my experience, the fans and the media really have no idea what a team’s feelings about players and plans for players are. The media can report all it wants, but I  know for a fact they usually have no idea. We can only assume from the actions taken what the Eagles were thinking.

But the biggest question is why do this deal inside the division?

Again, it’s simple. This is the best deal on the table that suited all parties involved. I’ll keep repeating this: GM’s and personnel staffs place extremely high values on mid-round picks. Those 3-5 rounds are where teams get the most bang for their buck. And 2nd round picks are even more valuable. Teams like 1st round picks, but don’t like the lofty prices that come with the 1st round picks. So the Eagles, in a year where teams are really trying to be as efficient as possible with every dollar spent, got a 2nd round pick and the equivalent of a 4th or 5th round pick for a guy who they feel is only going to decline. And Andy Reid said himself, “We were thinking more about the Philadelphia Eagles than we were about the Redskins.”

To me, what he’s saying, is this: Sure, we’re going to have to face him, but we feel like with Kevin Kolb as our QB and Donovan under center for them, we’re still better than the Redskins. Especially with their draft picks in our pocket.

I also think it’s interesting to note that it’s been said that the Redskins offered up Albert Haynesworth in the talks in this deal. Yet, the Eagles weren’t even interested. So uninterested in fact, that the discussion never even escalated to how much of Albert’s salary that the Redskins would have to cover to make the deal even worth thinking about. To me, that sounds like the Eagles just wanted no part of Haynesworth.

The key things that I consider in this deal is where does this leave each team? I think this makes the Redskins a team to fear. If they can solidify their offensive line, which they should do with their 1st round pick, and then find a dynamic receiver somewhere in the middle rounds, I think the Redskins are a contender for the Lombardi Trophy. Call me crazy.

The Eagles sort of take a step back but not really. Kolb is capable, but Eagles fans can’t expect the big plays like McNabb used to make. Desean Jackson will make those plays on his own, but won’t have the benefit of one of the best big play arms to get him the ball. The Eagles always find a way to reload and I expect more out of the running game this year than they’ve had in the last couple of years. The offense isn’t the issue to me. The defense has some holes to fill. And actually I think there’s a hole to fill in every level of the defense. Philly is most likely to take the best available defensive player in the first two rounds. Safety and linebacker are probably the most pressing concerns.

2010
04/05
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Eagles agree to trade Donovan McNabb to the Redskins

McNabb has been traded for the Redskins 2nd round pick this year (37th overall) and a conditional pick, a 3rd or 4th, next season. Because it is a season removed, the conditional pick  is considered by NFL personnel to be the equivalent of a 4th or 5th rounder, respectively, this year. With this move, the Redskins get to keep their 1st round pick and get the tackle they want. It’s still possible they go with a receiver but it’s probably not likely.

It seems the NFL world is shocked by this move. I mean who would have ever saw this one coming?

What’s that? Someone did see this one coming? Really? Who?

You’re telling me that someone predicted this almost two weeks ago? That guy must be really smart.

2010
04/05
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McNabb to the Redskins

No, it didn’t really happen but if the Redskins can pull it off with a 1st and 4th or 5th round pick, then they become the leader in the NFL East.

Every once in a while a move comes about when it just seems too perfect not to happen. And I think that the Redskins have the draft picks, the coach, and the personnel to pull this off and make a run at the division title. Sure, draft picks are coveted at this point in the labor negotiations but when you have a defense that could finish in the top 10 without drafting a single player, you have a shot at the playoffs. Plus, it’s the Redskins and big moves are their middle name.

So make the deal for the QB, use your 2nd round pick on a dynamic receiver, then use your 3rd round pick on the correct lineman and you’re a Super Bowl contender. And while you’re always building for the future, if you have a chance to build a Super Bowl team right now, you can’t pass it up.

Go for it Bruce Allen.

2010
03/25
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This offseason showing which teams are ahead of the curve.

To you and me, this whole CBA thing kind of just appeared out of nowhere. To GM’s and team staffs, this is just the fork in the road that they knew they would eventually come to. Well, almost all. Some teams are as clueless are you and I.

One of the biggest themes to this offseason that I’ve noticed is that some teams have been preparing for this day for years. Some teams negotiated and structured contracts so that this period of uncertainty had less of an impact on their immediate teams. Some also structured bonuses and certain salary implications so that they would likely fall during a period where they could retain or release the player without either move pressing them against the salary cap.

Teams that loaded up on draft picks for this draft are also ahead of the curve. Only a few teams realized that due to the 2 additional years to become an unrestricted free agent, that the talent pool of free agency wasn’t going to be as big or as deep. So if a team has holes to patch, teams with more draft picks have more resources to patch holes with and therefore should be more complete in their efforts this offseason.

A segment on the Buccaneers website the other day has an interview with GM Mark Dominik who even mentions that his staff is already working on a big board for the 2011 draft just to understand what they might be looking at when the time comes. I’m not sure if this is common practice, or even how helpful it really might be, but it shows a tremendous attention to detail and an effort to be one step ahead and that says a lot.

2010
03/19
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I was right about the salary cap moves…

So I know you’ve missed me for a few days, and this article is from last week but it needs to be mentioned. John Clayton had a good quick article that sums up clubs moves so far this offseason.

Long story short: I was right about everything.

Basically, he says that teams are dumping salaries in fear of the cap returning. And teams are actually going the opposite of the spending frenzy that everyone thought would happen. Teams are actually spending less in free agency (partly because there’s less to spend on) than expected. The only reason the Bears made a splash is because they have so few draft picks this year because of trades.

Clayton also mentions that teams are getting younger because of all the salary dumping. It’s mostly the older vets that are being cut to get rid of salaries. Younger guys aren’t exactly being searched for, but the pure fact that the older players are being released are making teams younger just by cutting out the top end of the age bracket, which in turn lowers the average age of the team.

This also means that teams are going to be more frugal and look for the most efficient way to build a solid team. Before, there was a window of money that had to be spent, not too high or too low. Now, it seems as if teams are trying to make every dollar go further — which really should have been the idea in the first place, right?

2010
03/19
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Arizona Cardinals Going Against the Grain

If the NFL were one big family, the Arizona Cardinals would fill the role of the rebellious teenager.

If you haven’t noticed, the current trend among personnel staffs is to build teams through the draft and only minimally supplement a roster through free agency. Teams use the first few rounds of the draft to draft the young game changers that can be almost immediately effective starters. In the last few rounds teams are looking for those diamonds in the rough, but a good miss leaves you with a good player who can still provide meaningful playing time and fill out the tail end of the roster while still being financially efficient for the team as well.

After a few good years, the idea for the General Manager is to then focus his attention on retaining the talent that he has accumulated through the past drafts. This is the accepted idea of building, and just as importantly, maintaining a talented and deep roster.

So what the hell are the Arizona Cardinals doing?

They have had two young and talented defensive players in Karlos Dansby and Antrel Rolle that they really could have attempted to re-sign. I don’t think either of these guys had a huge desire to get out of Arizona. And the Cards have the money to retain them, it just seems like there wasn’t a huge effort on their part to keep them around.

And then, the Cardinals traded away a 2010 pick and a 2011 pick to acquire Kerry Rhodes — a guy who lost his starting position last year with the Jets.

Why on earth would the Cardinals allow three young talents to leave while trading away picks for a guy who didn’t live up to expectations?

The simple answer is money. Which is actually more complicated considering it should matter less this year with no salary cap, right? Wrong.

Teams are afraid that they might do something that will cause them more harm in the future. If a GM signs a player to a huge contract because he has no salary cap to worry about, if one is reinstated next year, he could put his team in a seriously tight corner. Because of this, most teams are treating the 2010 offseason like there is still a cap in place.

The Cardinals likely could have signed either Dansby or Rolle, but probably not both without putting themselves in jeopardy of future financial risk. Arizona also felt that Boldin was worth a new contract, just not the one that he was asking for. The Cards decided that they wanted to go ahead and get picks now for him and unload that contract so that they could stop the bleeding of losing Dansby and Rolle on D. They likely would have received a 3rd round compensation pick in 2011, but adding picks now allow them to reload in the draft. Also, Arizona is no longer on the hook for Boldin’s contract, which gives them room to make the move for Kerry Rhodes. He’s only 27 and he should be a good fit with super-freak Adrian Wilson. But it hurts to give up picks right after trading one of your best players to acquire more picks.

The Cards obviously have faith in their young wide receivers (and for good reason) to fill in since Boldin is gone. And they believe that Rhodes, next to Wilson, will provide them a solid safety core. In terms of overall personnel, Arizona isn’t in bad shape at all. And with a solid draft, they will be in great shape to win the NFC West again. If they can do that, all of these offseason losses will be totally forgotten.

2010
03/08
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Some considerations for the start of the new league year

Today begins the start of the uncertain for the NFL. Really, the uncertainty comes after this season, and that’s going to influence what happens this offseason and further on into the regular season. So here are a few things to consider when taking a look at personnel and teams over the next year.

1. Don’t expect a ton of huge moves this offseason. You’ll see the typical rush for these first few days of free agency, but teams won’t really go crazy. The uncertainty of 2011 and beyond means that teams will temper their aspirations this season. Clubs don’t want to get into a position where a cap is reinstated in 2011 and they have to undo something they did this year.

2. Look for an abnormal amount of salary dump moves this year. Most likely these will occur in the next week or a few weeks after this year’s Super Bowl. Signing bonuses and other certain bonuses are prorated over the life of a players contract. When that player is released those bonuses are then accelerated and count towards the current year’s salary cap. Without the cap this year, there is an open window for teams to get rid of any unwanted contracts without destroying salary cap room.

3. Intelligent teams have figured out that free agency signings usually don’t provide the “quick fix” that it seems like they should, and therefore have learned that the best way to build a team is through the draft. Teams that have been building this way have invested more time into drafting well and are content with staying out of bidding wars for larger free agents.  Towards the tail end of rosters, teams want young guys who don’t take up a lot of cap space, and outside of the first rounders, the draft provides a very efficient way to fill out the last 10 or so roster spots. This trend will increase even more when free agents begin to ask for even more exorbitant contracts because there is no salary cap. Smart teams will do this, but also the more frugal teams (no cap AND no floor) will look to save money by hanging their hat on the draft.

4. Also look for free agency to take a swing towards the larger free agents. With less teams trying to patch holes through free agency, teams will only look to get game changers that way. So the backups and roster fillers that find themselves as free agents will have to guard themselves against trying to ask for too large of contracts or else someone younger (and probably with a little less talent) who is willing to sign for less money will be taking their roster spot.

5. If a salary cap doesn’t return, don’t expect NFL free agency to look like that of the MLB. It will look totally different, except that I can see teams making trades to stockpile picks even more than they do now. This is similar to baseball in the idea that big name players are often traded away for prospects — but in football, the equivalent of prospects are draft picks. In the NFL, great teams are built on 53 solid players filling out the roster where as baseball teams are built on 4 or 5 superstars and a few decent guys on the tail end of the lineup or rotation. If an NFL team has 20 really good players, and 33 not so great guys then that team isn’t going to be very good. A team with 53 average players will beat them 9 out of 10 games. Injuries play such a huge role in the NFL that teams can’t be built on superstars. It has to be built on a complete roster with strength all the way through. Don’t construe this as saying, “trade Peyton Manning for a few draft picks.” That would be moronic obviously. But if a player still has a stigma attached to him but his production is missing, a team will have to stop and evaluate what’s best for the organization.

Good luck to you and all your teams this offseason.

2010
03/05
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